Battle for the GOP's Soul

Steve Helber / AP Photo Republicans will test their strength in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York today. But will the party’s conservative base or the alienated independents prevail? Plus, 6 hot races to watch today.

It’s been a year since the Republican Party was blown out in the 2008 election. On Tuesday, voters will go to the polls in Virginia and New Jersey to choose governors—the first major electoral reality-check since the Obama era began. While the party out of power traditionally makes gains in off-year and midterm elections, the GOP is facing an unusual set of contradictory signals as its rank and file head for the voting booth. How the contradictions are resolved Tuesday may speak volumes about Republicans’ chances for making major gains next year—and even reclaiming the White House in 2012.

On one hand, the GOP’s conservative base is enthusiastic and organized, leading significant protests against the Obama agenda within his first three months and helping to push his approval rating down from the high 60s after his inauguration to an average of about 50 percent today. With top flight Senate candidates entering races in Democratic strongholds like Illinois and Delaware in 2010 and some Republicans even predicting a takeover of the House, what once looked like a disastrous election cycle is an increasing source of excitement for conservatives.

The GOP is “off death row, but it’s still in solitary confinement,” says former Bush strategist Mark McKinnon.

But the GOP’s ability to capitalize on Obama’s vulnerabilities is constrained by the fact that Republicans have managed to become even less popular than they were under President George W. Bush. The party's favorability rating is at its lowest point in the most recent CNN/Opinion Research poll since the Clinton impeachment, with 36 percent of voters expressing positive opinions and 54 percent negative, versus 53 percent positive and 41 percent negative for the Democrats. In an even more historic drop, an anemic 20 percent of American voters identified as Republicans in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, the lowest percentage since 1983. The same poll showed Democrats leading 51 percent to 39 percent in a generic congressional ballot, numbers on par with Democratic blowouts in 2006 and 2008 and in line with a broader trend in the polls toward House Democrats after a brief dip over the summer.

The results Tuesday will provide the first real clue as to which narrative is closer to reality. With Republican or conservative candidates holding leads in the polls in Virginia and New York's 23rd District and New Jersey's Democratic governor on the ropes, a clean sweep could go a long way in demonstrating that the GOP can win local races even while the national party's brand remains toxic. The Daily Beast surveyed some of the key factors weighing on the party’s fortunes—Tuesday and on through 2010.

ADVANTAGES:

They’re Not Democrats

With only one-fifth of Americans willing to call themselves Republicans, in theory the party should be dead on arrival in most races. But the numbers are not quite as terrible as they seem: According to University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato, although many conservatives have grown disillusioned with the national Republican Party and now identify as independents, individual Republican candidates are ultimately gaining their begrudging support simply because they offer the only opportunity to send a message against the Democratic agenda.

“I'd put it this way: The Republicans are very lucky that America is stuck with the two-party system,” Sabato told The Daily Beast. “The reason they're doing better in specific elections this year and looking toward 2010 is because they're the only real alternative to Democrats.”

But according to Sabato, a sizable number of Republican voters in the 2010 elections may not even want to return the party to power in the House or Senate so much as send a protest vote over whichever issue—health care, jobs, national security—has angered them.

“It's one thing to cut the Democratic margin in the House and Senate as will likely happen, it's quite another to put Republicans back in charge,” he said.

There’s Room for Growth

The Democrats won most of the seats within reach in 2006 and 2008, when they had the wind at their backs. This time around, there are very few new targets of opportunity—and far more territory to defend. This gives the GOP a lot of room for growth. The Republicans’ candidates can also attack the Obama agenda, and blame him for the nation’s ills, without having to sell a platform of their own.

The Base Is Motivated

• The Daily Beast's Guide to the Year's 6 Most Crucial Races

• The Daily Beast’s John Batchelor: The Last Days of the GOP

• The Daily Beast’s Peter Beinart: Why the Democrats Should LoseThe polling for Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey so far show conservatives significantly more energized. Democratic complacency after dominating two election cycles could also suppress turnout further while Obama's relative unpopularity among elderly voters, who often vote in disproportionate numbers in midterm elections, could also help Republican candidates. Success in New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday could also be a confidence-booster, with the party faithful eager for any positive signs.

“[The Republican Party] is still ideologically divided but they have energy and the Democratic side just doesn't,” the CEO of Public Policy Polling, Dean Debnam, told The Daily Beast.

This dynamic has implications beyond the 2009 off-year balloting. In a low-turnout midterm election next year, the more motivated side could overperform.